CURRENT DANGER RATING

SITUATION

Warm temperatures and sunny skies has been the norm for the last couple of days.  Currently the temperature is 33 degrees and the winds are calm.  The cloudy skies are threatening to bring us some scattered light rain with the snow level being around 5,500 feet today. The forecast is calling for light rain showers mostly South of HWY 90 but our region might get a few drops and in the higher elevations we may see 1-2 inches of new snow.  Overnight temperatures were lingering from just below freezing to just above freezing across our region with no new snow and trace amounts of SWE(snow water equivalant). 

Observations Wednesday were collected in Kimmerly Basin area at 6,814 feet on an East aspect. Surface hoar was observed in most areas within the basin but was quickly being affected by the warm, sunny, blue sky early afternoon.  This 2-3 mm surface hoar was being sheltered in shaded areas. Melt freeze crusts were noted in the first 100 cms of the snow pack.  The melt freeze crust about 10 cm down from the top supported us as we skinned up and skied down in the early afternoon, this was probably not the case by late afternoon as the warm temperatures wore on.  Stability tests identified weak layers over and beneath melt feeze crusts with Quality 2 and 3 shears. These stability tests were requiring hard to very hard forces to produce failures along weak interfaces, such as a graupel/rounding faceted layer on top of a melt freeze layer about 50 cm down from the top .  Our extended column tests resulted with no propagation.  No natural avalanche activity was observed and no new cornice failures had taken place, however as the day warmed up the cornices around the basin were producing small roller balls resulting in small point releases.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures are forecasted to be in the high 30′s to low 50′s today with light winds and mostly cloudy skies.  Tonight the temperatures will hover around freezing and winds will remain light.

The avalanche hazard will be Moderate today.  During peak warming throughout the day avoid sun exposed aspects due to the potential of triggering a slide and avoid traveling under cornices as these may fail due to higher temperatures.   Human triggered avalanches are possible. Timing is of the essence here.  Ski early when bonds between grains have regained their strength due to overnight temperatures.  As the day wears on and temperatures climb remember bonds are being eroded causing weakness which could be just the right mix to trigger an avalanche as you drop onto a slope.  As surface layers weaken slab avalanches may occur and with deeper instabilities present deep slab avalanches could be triggered especially with springtime warming. 

See the current NWS (backcountry weather forecast)

TREND

The avalanche hazard will rise from the current level as warming temperatures build in our region into the weekend. Overnight freezing periods are shortening and daytime warming periods are increasing, instabilities will become more apparent as springtime thaw continues.  Cornice failures could increase in frequency as temperatures warm. These failures could trigger avalanche activity on near surface melt freeze layers.

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